Re: [libreoffice-marketing] Re: Dubious claims

On 11/08/2012 10:04 AM, webmaster-Kracked_P_P wrote:
> On 11/08/2012 09:31 AM, Jay Lozier wrote:
> > On 11/08/2012 03:43 AM, Italo Vignoli wrote:
> > > Il 08/11/2012 07:08, Alex Thurgood ha scritto:
> > >
> > > > In other words, at least for download/user stats, the answer is "no",
> > > > and for the other points Rob mentions, obtaining raw data of any
> > > > significance is for the git expert.
> > >
> > > Downloads are extracted from the mirrors, and there is a script for 
> > > that. GIT is for development related figures.
> > >
> > > > Thanks, I'll check it out, but basically what you are saying, if I
> > > > understand correctly, is that the data in question is provided in a
> > > > format which is not necessarily comparable to that which Rob has used
> > > > for AOO, and thus a certain amount of internal interpretations,
> > > > assumptions, etc are made by the LO project to arrive at its view 
> > > > of the
> > > > data. Are these methods/assumptions, as used by the LO project,
> > > > publicly documented on the LO wiki ?
> > >
> > > Our data are in a simple format (sum of units), while Mr Rob Weir is 
> > > using complicated interpretations to hide the truth, which is that 
> > > the developers and the community are with LO and not with Apache OO.
> > >
> > > There is no interpretation and assumptions in our data: the number 
> > > of developers is a sum of individual developers, the number of 
> > > commits is a sum of single commits, and so on.
> > >
> > > The number of community members has never been calculated using wiki 
> > > subscribers (in this case we estimate around 1,000 contributors), 
> > > and Mr Rob Weir has just got that number because it could be argued.
> > >
> > > The number of community members is estimated using global + local 
> > > mailing lists (many people are subscribed only to mailing lists in 
> > > their native language) + wiki contributors + developer numbers, 
> > > etcetera.
> > >
> > > So, being the method that we use a simple sum of data (and this 
> > > should be easy to understand by looking at the charts published on a 
> > > monthly basis), I do not think that we have to document such a 
> > > methodology.
> > >
> > > The number of users is estimated (and the term "estimated" has 
> > > always been associated to it). Of course, any estimate might be 
> > > right or might be wrong, according to the point of view.
> > >
> > > Apache OO has a higher number of downloads, of course, but I wonder 
> > > - for instance - if users who were previously used to get the 
> > > software in their native language are as happy as in the past when 
> > > have discovered - after having downloaded the software - that the 
> > > software is not available in their language).
> > >
> > > By using this metrics, for instance, it would be possible to reduce 
> > > Apache OO download numbers at least by one third (but maybe even 
> > > more), because you could easily cut downloads in countries where the 
> > > software is not available in the native language (version 3.4 was 
> > > not even available in British English).
> > >
> > > Bus, as we are not Mr Rob Weir - and having him as an opponent is a 
> > > blessing (please ask Microsoft) - we are not going to embark in such 
> > > a useless calculation.
> > >
> > > Apache OO is available in 20 languages, and they are currently 
> > > adding Danish and Norwegian (but many major languages are missing).
> > >
> > > LibreOffice is available in over 100 languages (over 95% of the 
> > > world population), and the community is now working at 
> > > Filipino/Tagalog or other minor languages.
> > >
> > > Number of languages available is a simple measure of community 
> > > numbers (although estimated, because many people involved in 
> > > localization do not show up in maling lists) but of course Mr Rob 
> > > Weir is not looking for simple measures because they can be 
> > > understood by everyone, and by using obscure measurements he does 
> > > try to obfuscate the reality.
> > >
> > > Best regards, Italo
> > Italo,
> >
> > If I understand the problem, we can reliably count certain items 
> > (code commits, number of downloads, etc.) while other statistics are 
> > estimates based on the data. The problem is that the statistics, 
> > while publicly interesting for many reasons, are more useful 
> > internally and what is probably more important the raw numbers is 
> > their growth/decrease with time to determine the health of LO. If 
> > downloads, subscribers, developers, commits, are increasing with time 
> > that indicates LO is healthy. Decreases in specific areas would 
> > indicate areas where the community or TDF would need to improve.
> >
> > IMHO, Rob Wier is committing a common problem with statistics and 
> > marketing data which is the data is often imprecise but when looked 
> > at over time can tell a very interesting story. For example, each 
> > download does not represent a new user but monthly increases would 
> > indicate the user base is growing. Also, every marketing expert I 
> > have ever known says it easier and cheaper to keep an established 
> > customer/user than to get a new one so growing monthly downloads 
> > would indicate to me that our marketing efforts are having some 
> > positive effect.
>
> How many times in the past 2 years have TDF needed to upgrade the 
> server system for a larger capacity due to the increased demand? That 
> is a good indicator that LO is growing in the market.  Yes, looking at 
> the monthly growth in downloads and such will be a good indicator.  
> How much larger the downloads are for the newest version of the line 
> that the last one?  3.6.2 had "x" and 3.6.3 had "x+y" downloads.  "y" 
> being the potential new users.  How many users downloaded 3.5.7 when 
> 3.6.2 was out?  How many more downloaded 3.5.7 over 3.5.6?
+1
Positive trends are more important than precise numbers of users.
> The exact figures are hard to come by, for reasons that include the 
> Linux repository downloads/updates, but we know that there are more 
> activity in the server system than 6 months ago and more downloads as 
> well.  LO is growing in the market.  Having the percentage figure 
> would be nice, but it is not available.  Also having governments 
> announce that they are switching to LO is even better for user 
> "pride"in the marketing aspect.


--
Jay Lozier
jslozier@gmail.com


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